Morgan Stanley Cuts Coinbase Price Target by More Than Half to $120

The downgrade followed Coinbase's third-quarter 2026 results. The company reported revenue of $1.22 billion, down 35% from a year earlier and 6% below Morgan Stanley's estimate. Transaction revenue fell 44% to about $590 million, while subscription and services revenue declined 20% to roughly $570 million.

Despite the weaker top line, Coinbase posted a 66% year-on-year rise in net income to $719 million, aided by a $715 million gain on cryptocurrency investments and growth in prediction markets. Excluding investment gains and related adjustments, adjusted net income was $77.7 million. The company's prediction markets business passed $200 million in annualised revenue, doubling from around $100 million in the prior quarter, and accounted for roughly 25% of transaction revenue, according to Bernstein analysts cited by BitKE. Stablecoin revenue reached $328 million, up 3% from the previous quarter.

Morgan Stanley estimates fourth-quarter 2026 transaction revenue at about $608 million, roughly half its previous forecast of $1.2 billion. The bank also lowered its revenue forecasts for 2027 and 2028 by 28% and 18% respectively, and cut its adjusted EBITDA estimates for those years by 47% and 25%. Its revised 2028 adjusted EBITDA forecast of $2.4 billion sits about 14% below 2025 levels.

Nvidia, Nike, Microsoft and dozens of other companies have objected to having their shares tokenized on a trading venue backed by OKX and Intercontinental Exchange, bringing the total to 50.